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Brandon Warren, Chief Growth Officer
Inflation is no longer just confined to headlines in 2026, it’s now an operating reality shaping assortment decisions, shelf strategy and long-term brand health
The sharp inflation spikes of recent years may have eased, but volatility hasn’t disappeared. Retailers are under pressure to protect price perception, consumers remain value-conscious and manufacturers are navigating raw material, labor and supply chain costs that continue to fluctuate unevenly across categories.
The next phase isn’t about reacting to inflation, it’s about designing portfolios, packs and partnerships that can absorb it. Over the next 18 to 24 months, the brands that win shelf space and consumer loyalty will be those that move beyond blunt price increases and instead align with retailers on smarter price architecture, supply chain flexibility and clearly defined roles alongside private brands.
USDA data remains the most reliable lens on food pricing trends. In its most recent Food Price Outlook, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% between July and August 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9%. Grocery prices (food-at-home) rose slightly less, at 2.7% YoY, while food-away-from-home increased 3.9%.
That gap matters. It signals continued opportunity for at-home consumption, not just as a cost-saving alternative, but as a space where brands and retailers can trade consumers up within the store, even as they trade down from restaurants.
Consumers aren’t abandoning quality, they’re reallocating spend. With dining out becoming more expensive, cooking at home is regaining relevance. This is where brands can partner with retailers to elevate the in-store experience rather than race to the bottom on price.
We’re seeing success when brands lean into:
· Restaurant-quality positioning for at-home meals
· Clear usage cues and cross-merchandising
· Meal solutions, not just products
Simple executions, such as premium pasta sauces merchandised next to fresh pasta or higher-end proteins paired with sauces or sides, help shoppers justify a slightly higher ring by replacing a restaurant occasion. These strategies strengthen category performance and make the buyer’s job easier.
Inflation is only one source of disruption. Supply chain shocks, especially in commodity-driven categories, can upend pricing overnight.
Eggs are a recent example every retailer remembers. Prices swung from $4.82 per dozen in January 2023 down to $2.08 by May, then surged to a historic high of $6.27 in March 2025 following avian flu–related shortages. That’s a staggering 59% YoY increase.
Imported commodities add another layer of uncertainty. Coffee is a prime example: widely purchased, deeply habitual and heavily influenced by factors outside U.S. inflation.
Average coffee prices climbed from $6.46 per pound in December 2022 to $9.13 by September 2025. Notably, the 40% spike between 2024 and 2025 was driven largely by tariffs, not inflation. When tariffs on Brazilian imports were removed, prices dropped sharply, underscoring how disconnected these swings can be from domestic economic trends.
When costs jump for reasons consumers don’t fully understand, price increases are risky. This is where Price Pack Architecture (PPA) becomes one of the most valuable tools brands can bring to retail conversations:
· Adjusting pack sizes to hold key price points
· Offering alternative blends or formulations
· Creating clear good/better/best tiers within the category
Buyers are far more receptive to these strategies than to repeated list-price increases, especially when they preserve choice and transparency on shelf.
Inflation has accelerated consumer comfort with private brands, but it’s not a zero-sum game. Retailers need strong private brand programs and strong national brands. Each plays a distinct role in driving traffic, margin and differentiation.
Manufacturers that succeed long-term understand this dynamic. Rather than viewing private brands as competition to be fought on price, the smartest brands:
· Clarify their unique value proposition
· Invest in innovation, storytelling and usage occasions
· Use PPA, operational efficiencies and supply chain improvements to protect margins without eroding brand trust
It’s also worth noting that many manufacturers now participate in both sides of the business national brands and private brands alike. The skills that inflation is forcing into focus today – agility, cost discipline and retailer alignment – translate across both models.
Inflation may moderate, but volatility is here to stay. The brands best positioned for the future are already shifting how they work with brokers and retailers:
· Bringing solutions, not just cost increases
· Planning price and pack architecture proactively
· Designing assortments that acknowledge value-seeking behavior without sacrificing brand equity Our role at The Barcode Group is to help brands translate these strategies into shelf reality, aligning with retailer priorities, strengthening category performance and ensuring brands remain relevant no matter how the economic winds shift.
The next 18 months will reward manufacturers who think beyond price and invest in flexibility, collaboration and long-term value creation for retailers, consumers and for the brands themselves.
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